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The Cook Islands and three other South Pacific countries face a much higher risk of cyclones this season, says the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research.
Senior climate scientist Jim Salinger says there is a 70 percent chance of a cyclone in the South Pacific before January 1, and a 90 percent chance that one will occur before February 1
Fiji, Wallis and Futuna, Niue, and the southern Cook Islands were at an increased risk, and possibly Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, Tonga and the Austral Islands of French Polynesia, he says.
Dr Salinger said the rate of cyclone occurrence for islands west of the date line was likely to be normal, although the institute included the Solomon Islands as being at possibly increased risk.
"This south-eastward elongation of the normal pattern is expected because of weak El Nino conditions presently affecting the tropical Pacific region, and the extra ocean warmth around and east of the date line," he said.
"The seas are warmer than normal, and are expected to remain so throughout much of the cyclone season."
Cook Islands Meteorological Office spokesman Arona Ngari says sea temperatures are rapidly nearing the 27C which can trigger cyclones.
“The risk that we will get a cyclone in the Southern Cooks is increasing, if past weak El Nino years are anything to go by.
“From 1982 to 1983, for example, there were five cyclones in French Polynesia, which is normally cyclone-free. In the 1986 to 1987 season we had Cyclone Sally.
“In the 1997 to 1998 season there were 16 cyclones in the South Pacific region, including Cyclone Martin which devastated Manihiki.”
Ngari says people should consider the statistics and weigh up how they can best minimise the effect of a cyclone hitting their island.
“If you can take steps to lessen the impact a cyclone can bring, it is possible to minimise a disaster.”
The Met Service plans to hold open days or even a week when members of the public will be welcome to call in at the weather station to learn how cyclones are formed. The service will also provide advice on dealing with cyclones.
Ngari says the telephone book contains useful cyclone information and people should make sure that they are familiar with all of the precautions that it recommends.
El Nino, Spanish for "boy child," is a periodic, abnormal warming of water in the Pacific Ocean, which can last up to 18 months.
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